During the provincial election of 2015, Rachel Notley was everywhere. Literally.
The party – which, going into the election, had just four seats – was desperate. Their candidates were so unknown, so unprepared, that election signs would have given you the impression that Rachel Notley was running in your constituency because her name – and her name only – appeared on signs. Thanks to a once-in-a-lifetime combination of an unpopular premier, a (finally) exhausted governing party, and a divided right, the party rode to a stunning, historic victory with 54 seats – an increase of 50! – thanks overwhelmingly to Notley’s personal popularity.
The NDP lost the next election, which is generally the end of the road for a party leader. But Notley was still the party’s greatest asset. Even last year, election signs all said “Rachel Notley’s team!” in the hopes that you would forget that your MLA was a faceless, do-nothing nobody (or at least mine was, and still is). “She’s one of us!” their TV ads bragged.
It almost worked. But rural Alberta was still mostly immune to Notley’s twinkly eyes and motherly smile, and the party lost, barely. Even Rachel Notley couldn’t survive two straight losses.
With Notley’s retirement announcement, the NDP faces an existential crisis. The party hitched its wagon to its lone star (can you hitch a wagon to a star? I’m not good at astronomy or farming), and it worked. It wasn’t the New Democratic Party anymore, it was the Rachel Notley Party. They did everything but officially change the name.
But the star has burned out, and there is nobody close to having Notley’s personal popularity among potential candidates. I’m quite certain you won’t see election ads touting “Rakhi Pancholi’s team!” in the next election.
To use sports terminology, the party’s bench strength is weak. Several MLAs have been mentioned as potential leadership candidates, but none of them are especially appealing. If I had to guess, I would say Kathleen Ganley has the best shot, because a) she’s from Calgary, where the party desperately needs to make inroads, and b) she’s not as annoying as Sarah Hoffman or Shannon Phillips. (Although no one has mentioned this, there is also a paucity of male candidates. The Rachel Notley Party has always shown a distinct preference for women; on its web page, the main photo is Notley walking bravely into the future, surrounded entirely by female MLAs,although Janis Irwin is dressed in her standard business suit).
While the loss of Notley is bad news for the party, it’s potentially good news for what’s left of the Alberta Liberals and the Alberta Party. If the NDP goes too far left or too woke, as it easily could, those once promising parties will have a chance to offer Albertans a choice. While a revived ALP or AP seems like a long shot, it’s worth noting that going into the 1997 election, the NDP had zero seats. With Notley gone, the opportunity is there for those parties to merge, create a baggage-free third party, and maybe find a Notley-esque leader. They’ve got the time to get their acts together, assuming they still have any active members.
In any event, the Rachel Notley Party is no more. It’s time for the NDP to forge a new image not based on a cult of personality. This does not bode well.
In This Corner 
I have to agree. I was hesitant to call the NDP term in government a fluke, but the last election jaded me. The NDP had as much going for them last year as they did in 2015, if not more, and still snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. They were facing one of the most inept, divisive governments the province has ever seen, and a leader who seemed to pathologically shoot herself in the foot and cram that foot into her mouth. Yet they still lost. A close call, but a loss.
So, it’s make or break time for the NDP. They need a real firebrand leader to ignite their engines, or they’re on the pathe to obscurity that claimed the Liberals.